In our three-part series on Sustainable Aviation Fuel, we’ve explored the essential elements shaping the future of aviation’s decarbonization journey and its critical role as a cornerstone among green molecules™. The first article provided a regulatory overview, detailing the policies and frameworks driving SAF adoption globally. In the second, we delved into the technology pathways powering SAF production, from Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) to emerging methods like Power-to-Liquids (PtL), highlighting how these innovative green molecule solutions are reshaping the energy landscape.

Now, in the final part of this series, we bring it all together by highlighting the market leaders and innovators transforming these pathways into actionable solutions. From Neste’s leadership in HEFA to Cemvita’s groundbreaking 1 billion-gallon SAF agreement with United Airlines, these companies are addressing the technical challenges while scaling production to meet the growing demand for low-carbon fuels.

This concluding piece ties the regulatory framework and technological advancements to the real-world impact of industry leaders, underscoring the pivotal role of SAF as a green molecule in decarbonizing aviation. As Energy Capital Ventures continues to focus on enabling transformative solutions through green molecules, we see SAF as a cornerstone of the aviation sector’s transition to sustainability. The innovators spotlighted here exemplify how investment, innovation, and collaboration are driving progress and creating scalable pathways to a low-carbon future.

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Investment Trends Among Airlines in SAF

Airlines are intensifying their investments in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to meet ambitious decarbonization targets. Leading carriers such as United Airlines, Air France-KLM, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines are at the forefront of this transition, committing substantial resources to accelerate SAF adoption.

United Airlines

• Sustainable Flight Fund: Launched in February 2023, United's investment vehicle has rapidly expanded, now exceeding $200 million with contributions from over 20 corporate partners, including Air Canada, Boeing, and JPMorgan Chase.
• Purchase Agreements: United has secured significant SAF supply deals, including a recent agreement with Phillips 66 to receive 3 million gallons of SAF for use at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX).
• Cemvita Partnership: In September 2023, United Airlines signed a groundbreaking agreement with Cemvita to acquire up to 1 billion gallons of SAF over 20 years. Cemvita utilizes innovative biotechnology to convert CO₂ into sustainable fuels, showcasing the potential of bioengineering in scaling SAF supply.

Southwest Airlines

• In February 2024, Southwest announced a $30 million investment in LanzaJet to support the development and production of SAF, further contributing to the industry's sustainability efforts.

Air France-KLM Group

• In July 2024, Air France-KLM co-invested in a SAF financing fund alongside Airbus, Qantas Airways, and other partners, aiming to accelerate SAF production and adoption.

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Key SAF Production Pathways and Challenges

Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)

The only fully commercialized SAF pathway, HEFA is expected to supply up to 85% of SAF capacity by 2030. This lipid-derived method relies on waste oils, fats, and vegetable oils.

• Advantages: Proven, scalable, and cost-effective, HEFA integrates seamlessly with existing refinery infrastructure.
  • Example: Our portfolio company Cemvita, leveraging their proprietary synthetic biology technology, is conducting detailed engineering analysis for their first-of-a-kind waste sugar-to-oil conversion process. This innovative approach transforms low-value bio-derived feedstocks into bio-oil, which can be used in HEFA plants to increase SAF production—addressing one of the key challenges of HEFA-based SAF.
• Challenges: Feedstock availability is a bottleneck, with waste oils and fats in limited supply and facing competition from renewable diesel. Vegetable oils raise concerns about deforestation and emissions.
  • Example: Palm oil-derived HEFA has been criticized for its high carbon footprint due to land-use changes.
• Innovation Areas: Converting biomass (e.g., woody or cellulosic materials) into bio-oil via pyrolysis and scaling algae-derived oils.
  • Example: Emerging algae technologies are focused on reducing production costs to diversify feedstocks.

Fischer-Tropsch (FT)

FT technology gasifies feedstocks like agricultural residues, forestry waste, and municipal solid waste (MSW) into syngas, refined into SAF.

• Advantages: Highly versatile in feedstock use and produces high-quality fuels that meet aviation standards.
  • Example: Velocys’ UK and U.S. projects utilize forestry residues to create SAF, enhancing supply chain flexibility.
• Challenges: High capital costs, long construction timelines, and complex logistics for consistent feedstock supply.
  • Example: Red Rock Biofuels’ Oregon facility has faced delays due to high costs and logistical issues.
• Innovation Areas: Modular reactor designs, improved syngas cleanup, and advanced catalysts to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
  • Example: Velocys’ microchannel reactor technology improves scalability while lowering operational expenses.

Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ)

ATJ converts alcohols like ethanol and isobutanol into jet fuel. It leverages ethanol infrastructure and offers scalability potential.

• Advantages: Utilizes existing ethanol supply chains, particularly in the U.S. and Brazil, with high greenhouse gas reduction potential.
  • Example: Gevo’s Net-Zero 1 facility will produce 60 million gallons of SAF annually using renewable energy and agricultural residues.
• Challenges: First-generation feedstocks (e.g., corn) compete with food production, and commercialization faces high costs and technological hurdles.
  • Example: LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines Biorefinery is an early-stage facility demonstrating ATJ scalability.
• Innovation Areas: Developing feedstocks like cellulosic ethanol from agricultural waste or non-food crops to improve sustainability.
  • Example: Swedish Biofuels is advancing ethanol technologies to expand feedstock options.

Power-to-Liquids (PtL)

PtL synthesizes SAF by combining green hydrogen and CO₂ using renewable energy, offering near-zero lifecycle emissions.

• Advantages: Minimal land and water use, with potential to utilize captured CO₂ from industrial sources or direct air capture.
  • Example: Twelve’s AirPlant™ One, with $645 million in funding, will convert CO₂ into SAF.
• Challenges: PtL is the most expensive pathway due to high costs for electrolysis and renewable energy. Critical processes like the Reverse Water Gas Shift reaction require further development.
  • Example: Sunfire’s high-temperature electrolysis technology is focused on improving efficiency and lowering costs.
• Innovation Areas: Scaling technologies like Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cells (SOEC) and improving co-electrolysis efficiency.
  • Example: Infinium’s Roadrunner project in Texas integrates advanced PtL technologies, backed by Brookfield Asset Management.

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Market Leaders in SAF Pathways

Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)

• Neste: The global leader in HEFA production, Neste produces 1 million metric tons (mt) of SAF annually, with plans to scale to 1.5 million mt by 2024. The company partners with major airlines like Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, and JetBlue, and operates expanded facilities in Finland, Singapore, and the Netherlands. Neste recently completed the first 100% SAF in-flight study, demonstrating significant emission reductions and further establishing its leadership.
• World Energy: Operating the first commercial HEFA facility in California since 2016, World Energy plans to expand its capacity to 150 million gallons annually by 2024. The company has secured key offtake agreements with major airlines, bolstering SAF adoption in California.
• Diamond Green Diesel (Valero & Darling Ingredients): Combining Valero’s refining expertise with Darling Ingredients’ waste oil supply chain, the Port Arthur, Texas plant aims to produce 15,000 barrels/day of SAF by 2024. This project highlights scalability in both SAF and renewable diesel markets.

Fischer-Tropsch (FT)

• Velocys: Focused on modular FT reactors, Velocys collaborates with British Airways and Shell. Key projects include a UK biorefinery converting household and commercial waste into SAF and a facility in Natchez, Mississippi, utilizing forestry residues and MSW. Velocys also provides technology for Red Rock Biofuels, further driving the FT pathway.
• Red Rock Biofuels: Specializing in woody biomass conversion, the Oregon facility aims to produce 15 million gallons of SAF annually by 2026. Contracts with Southwest Airlines and FedEx validate forestry waste as a viable feedstock.
• WasteFuel: Leveraging municipal solid waste (MSW), WasteFuel operates pioneering projects across Asia and the Americas. Its Manila facility is a prime example of MSW-to-SAF innovation, positioning the company as a leader in feedstock diversification.

Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ)

• Gevo: A pioneer in ATJ, Gevo is constructing its Net-Zero 1 facility in South Dakota, which will integrate renewable energy and agricultural residues to produce 60 million gallons of SAF annually. Backed by a $1.46 billion conditional loan from the U.S. Department of Energy, Gevo has secured long-term contracts with Delta and Lufthansa.
• LanzaJet: The Freedom Pines Biorefinery in Georgia, supported by Shell and British Airways, produces 10 million gallons of SAF and renewable diesel annually. LanzaJet is also spearheading a project to build Europe’s first ethanol-to-SAF facility, backed by €20 million from the EU H2020 program.

Power-to-Liquids (PtL)

• Sunfire: A leader in high-temperature electrolysis, Sunfire produces synthesis gas from CO₂ and renewable energy. Partnered with Climeworks, the company is developing Europe’s first hydrogen-based SAF plant in Norway, set to begin production in 2023.
• Twelve: Utilizing innovative technology to convert captured CO₂ into SAF, Twelve’s AirPlant™ One in Washington state is slated to begin production in 2025. With $645 million in funding, Twelve has secured agreements with British Airways and other airlines, positioning it as a major player in PtL innovation.
• Infinium: Synthesizing e-fuels from CO₂ and hydrogen, Infinium’s Roadrunner project in West Texas is backed by $1.1 billion in investment from Brookfield Asset Management. This project is key to scaling e-fuel availability and driving adoption across the aviation sector.

The momentum behind SAF highlights a broader commitment to decarbonization and the transformative potential of green molecules™—an area of strategic focus for Energy Capital Ventures. As a key example of green molecules in action, SAF showcases how innovative technologies and scalable solutions can drive the development of cleaner, more sustainable energy systems. With significant investments and technological advancements accelerating its adoption, SAF is emerging as a cornerstone of aviation’s transition to a low-carbon future. The collaboration between airlines, energy leaders, and investors will be essential in scaling SAF production and ensuring green molecu les deliver both environmental and economic benefits on a global scale.